This has truly been one of the worst years I can remember. Refugee numbers are up past World War II levels (when will World War III start? Or isn't it simply being fought now by proxy?). Countries living in (stable) but repressive societies, having overthrown their leaders, have once again fallen into chaos and civil war.
And then we have Ebola.
We are going to see some serious things happen over the next few years - and this is the important thing to remember - it is going to take years and years. It isn't easy for Ebola Sufferer A to walk around and cough blood onto people, or for us to take his fluids into our bodies, but it will occasionally happen and it will happen in increasing numbers as time goes on - that's just maths.
This isn't going to be like the Swine Flu outbreak which came and went in a year or two. In America, it is said during that pandemic to have killed 12,000 of 274,000 hospitalised people. The total number of infected was estimated to be about 59,000,000. That's a death rate of 0.0002%.
This isn't going to be like SARS. 8100 people infected (globally) and 774 dead. That is an altogether more deadly sickness with a death rate of 10.5%, but poor spread.
Ebola has so far, according to WHO, been reported in 8,900 patients. 4,493 of them have died. That is just over 50%. These are underestimates. That over a time period of seven months - slow for an infectious virus - but the growth of new infections looks just like any other pandemic. This is not something that will go away in a year or two, it is going to bubble and creep into more and more countries.
Nigeria managed to contain an initial spread - a visibly sick Ebola sufferer on a plane ended up with 19 infected people but, after the government traced all of the passengers and all of whom they would be in contact with (around 18,500 people) it was contained. This is a great example of what a reasonably developed country can do when given enough time. We in the West are almost definitely able to handle new Ebola cases quicker than they come up and can be spread in the population, although that remains to be stringently tested and human error is always possible.
So what is there to be scared of?
In my opinion, two things. Panic and biological terrorism.
When I say Ebola is going to wreak some havok on the world, it isn't necessarily because it's going to ravage every country. But human nature and ignorance and error are not to be underestimated. The panic will be the scariest. You don't need to remove yourself from major cities but be vigilant and careful during any times of Ebola-themed unrest in the next few months and years - the virus is not infectious enough by itself to endanger populations at large but do your best to learn about it and educate the people around you about the dangers, the chances, push it upon them until they truly don't hold irrational fears. That will be your best way of protecting yourself.
The thing I really fear is terrorism. I have only read examples of this in a few books - some conspiracy theories (water supply spikings) and some complete science-fictions (Stephen King novels often include some sort of deadly contagion) - but make no mistake, Ebola is a biological weapon. It is kept in vials under cases and in double-sealed labs in underground military bunkers around the world. Africa is not an environment that is containing this virus. If you were a suicide bomber in nearby Nigeria, a terrorist, and you see in the country next to yours something that can bring entire populations to its knees through panic, and fear, and death....
It is just a matter of time. If a terrorist becomes infected and then survives, he becomes immune to the virus. All he needs to do is take a a dead body, parts of a dead body, cases of infected blood, anything, which he can do with impunity, and get it into food supplies, water supplies, things people eat or drink. There are so many possibilities for intentional infection and although this is going to initially be an African problem, it is only a matter of time before it gets out. I don't know how we can safeguard against this threat, except for -
A vaccine. I pray to god that the research comes to fruition, that human ingenuity and luck can save us from nature, that Ebola sticks to its non-mutating nature and we get ahead of it before it destroys us. I hope it receives funding from every single philanthropic entity in the world until there is enough for EVERY SINGLE PERSON who needs it. I hope that humans can be united against a common threat and not allow this to be another reason to drive ourselves apart. I hope for the best, but I am expecting the worst.
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