Ebola - Expect the worst, hope for the best

This has truly been one of the worst years I can remember. Refugee numbers are up past World War II levels (when will World War III start? Or isn't it simply being fought now by proxy?). Countries living in (stable) but repressive societies, having overthrown their leaders, have once again fallen into chaos and civil war.

And then we have Ebola.

We are going to see some serious things happen over the next few years - and this is the important thing to remember - it is going to take years and years. It isn't easy for Ebola Sufferer A to walk around and cough blood onto people, or for us to take his fluids into our bodies, but it will occasionally happen and it will happen in increasing numbers as time goes on - that's just maths.

This isn't going to be like the Swine Flu outbreak which came and went in a year or two. In America, it is said during that pandemic to have killed 12,000 of 274,000 hospitalised people. The total number of infected was estimated to be about 59,000,000. That's a death rate of 0.0002%.

This isn't going to be like SARS. 8100 people infected (globally) and 774 dead. That is an altogether more deadly sickness with a death rate of 10.5%, but poor spread.

Ebola has so far, according to WHO, been reported in 8,900 patients. 4,493 of them have died. That is just over 50%. These are underestimates. That over a time period of seven months - slow for an infectious virus - but the growth of new infections looks just like any other pandemic. This is not something that will go away in a year or two, it is going to bubble and creep into more and more countries.

Nigeria managed to contain an initial spread - a visibly sick Ebola sufferer on a plane ended up with 19 infected people but, after the government traced all of the passengers and all of whom they would be in contact with (around 18,500 people) it was contained. This is a great example of what a reasonably developed country can do when given enough time. We in the West are almost definitely able to handle new Ebola cases quicker than they come up and can be spread in the population, although that remains to be stringently tested and human error is always possible.

So what is there to be scared of?

In my opinion, two things. Panic and biological terrorism. 

When I say Ebola is going to wreak some havok on the world, it isn't necessarily because it's going to ravage every country. But human nature and ignorance and error are not to be underestimated. The panic will be the scariest. You don't need to remove yourself from major cities but be vigilant and careful during any times of Ebola-themed unrest in the next few months and years - the virus is not infectious enough by itself to endanger populations at large but do your best to learn about it and educate the people around you about the dangers, the chances, push it upon them until they truly don't hold irrational fears. That will be your best way of protecting yourself.

The thing I really fear is terrorism. I have only read examples of this in a few books - some conspiracy theories (water supply spikings) and some complete science-fictions (Stephen King novels often include some sort of deadly contagion) - but make no mistake, Ebola is a biological weapon. It is kept in vials under cases and in double-sealed labs in underground military bunkers around the world. Africa is not an environment that is containing this virus. If you were a suicide bomber in nearby Nigeria, a terrorist, and you see in the country next to yours something that can bring entire populations to its knees through panic, and fear, and death....

It is just a matter of time. If a terrorist becomes infected and then survives, he becomes immune to the virus. All he needs to do is take a a dead body, parts of a dead body, cases of infected blood, anything, which he can do with impunity, and get it into food supplies, water supplies, things people eat or drink. There are so many possibilities for intentional infection and although this is going to initially be an African problem, it is only a matter of time before it gets out. I don't know how we can safeguard against this threat, except for -

A vaccine. I pray to god that the research comes to fruition, that human ingenuity and luck can save us from nature, that Ebola sticks to its non-mutating nature and we get ahead of it before it destroys us. I hope it receives funding from every single philanthropic entity in the world until there is enough for EVERY SINGLE PERSON who needs it. I hope that humans can be united against a common threat and not allow this to be another reason to drive ourselves apart. I hope for the best, but I am expecting the worst. 

HK vs China - 1 country, 1.5 systems (and counting)

Protesters occupied the streets for over a week

Is it romance vs pragmatism? The umbrella protests have been dressed up and labelled in many ways. My friends have come out and said many different things supporting and opposing protesters and both argments have their merits.

First thing's first - Hong Kong's Chief Executive (national leader) position has never been decided by popular vote. Only the District Council (local leaders) are voted for by the people. These make up a council/committee of 1200 people; businessmen, clergymen, community leaders etc. They then nominate people to run for Chief Executive. They take a vote (between the 1200), and the winner gets the position. He then chooses his cabinet for himself.

(In summary, people choose the local leaders only and the local leaders then choose the national leader amongst themselves. The big leader then chooses the cabinet he wants.)

Well, now, the candidates who run for Chief Executive can run if they attain 100 nominating votes before the election. This is much less than what China is proposing to install in 2017. China agreed to let people vote directly for the Chief Executive in 2017 but has basically made it so any leader that stands for election has to gain over 600 nominating votes from the District Council instead of 100. The amount of people in the District Council who are pro-China is in the majority, so any nominee has to be be inherently pro-China to gain these 600 votes from the committee. People can spot the rat, and they are pised.

So Hong Kong. It was ruled by the British and they certainly didn't give much of a shit what the common people thought of them for a long time. It just so happens that HK has been a prosperous and thriving hub for a century and, much like Scotland, it became a case of "don't fix what isn't broken". Were we benevolent and rational in our governance? Perhaps we just kept a tighter lid on things and made enough people rich. There are umpteen examples of English colonialists slaughtering their subjects when the need arises, so let's not kid ourselves about what happens when subjects of the empire get a little big for their boots - torture and murder and historical revisionism abound. Regardless, the reality is that Hong Kong has gotten to where it is under non-democratic governance. Why would China do Hong Kong any worse or differently? Well....

....we are blessed with numerous examples of Chinese governance outside of its historical borders, and I cite a couple of current ones here: Tibet and Xinjiang. These are both Special Adminstrative Regions (SARs, like HK), have their own native languages, are distinctly not Han Chinese and struggle ceaselessly against local Chinese authorities. These authorities are backed by the army and the numbers of Han Chinese who are immigrating there, taking up the call to arms their masters are putting out for them. The result has been social chaos, a little like Israeli settlers on Palestinian land. Could this happen in Hong Kong?

Uighur ethnic unrest continues in Xinjiang

In a word, no. In a few words, not quite on the same scale. HK is much more of a breadbasket than are the aforementioned SAR's, with a much lower need for infrastructure and investment (because of size and current state of development). The people are already reasonably prosperous. China are themselves relentlessly urbanizing their country. They have created special free-trade zones inside Shanghai that are not restricted by government control like everywhere else, and China looks on Hong Kong as an example of success - THEIR success - and they have no reason to change it too much. So why are the protesters so pissed? 

They are scared. And with good reason. How does China treat its SARs?

Well, China has 55 capital crimes (those punishable by death). Included within is "treason", in China a vague and murky accusation that is often adjusted to fit the crime. Rioting is also punishable by death! It is easy to imagine the Chinese government rounding up the top few hundred umbrella protesters and shooting them all in the back of the head on whichever charge they want. They execute thousands of people a year, with no requirement to release information of who and how many. This doesn't even include the imprisoned, the displaced and the bullied. They have no reason to not incorporate this state of law upon HK, whether it is in a few years or in 2047 (China is officially allowed to claim HK as its own country in 2047) when all contracts, promises and bets are off.

This state of law co-exists alongside its business and industry sectors in China, and the people in HK who toe the line will probably have pretty normal lives. If you don't, well... and do you consider that might and lack of alternative is equal to legitimacy and fairness? Chinese people get on with their lives, not really aware of some of the things their government does. It's worth mentioning that the German people also didn't know where so many Jews were disappearing to...

Illham Tothi, moderate Uighur scholar. Life imprisonment
for separatism. Advocates of independence for Scotland
from the UK were granted a referendum, instead.

Where did the people of Hong Kong originate from? Obviously, China. Why, though, did many of them end up in Hong Kong? Almost always, running from whichever despot is running the mainland, escaping persecution and death. I read in this viral here that the people of HK look down on the Chinese, mostly because of nasty incidents with mainland tourists that get blown up in the media. Historically though, fear and mistrust of those who represent China runs deep in the makeup of the average Hong Kongese. No wonder they protest!

If I could give any advice - people should stop reducing China down to just a 'profitable economy', as if people's safety, security and rights are irrelevant. Since the West has basically enslaved more and more of the globe to money, the world's evolution into a fairer and more accountable state is slowing down. More and more people mistake Chinese economic progress and political clout as a sign that their system is an admirable and successful one. Do not lose yourselves in greed and moral compromise. In the West, the fight for money and power used to be a romantic adventure where all of the losers were kept out of sight in colonies, factories, prisons. Nowadays, most of the losers are kept hidden in rural China and other third world regions and the Western winners of yesterday are queuing up for a piece of this exploited workforce. Don't believe the hype, and don't support China blindly because they are doing good business. More important things than iPhones and fancy living are at stake.